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10/26/2011 - Martinsville, VA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Series: NASCAR Sprint Cup. Date: Sunday, October 30. Race: Tums Fast Relief 500. Site: Martinsville Speedway. Track: 0.526-mile oval. Start time: 1:30 p.m. (et). Laps: 500. Miles: 263. 2010 Winner: Denny Hamlin. Television: ESPN. Radio: Motor Racing Network (MRN) /SIRIUS NASCAR Satellite.
With four races to go, Carl Edwards is in pretty good shape to win his first Sprint Cup Series championship. Edwards survived last Sunday's Chase "wild card" race at Talladega with an 11th-place finish. His lead is now 14 points over Roush Fenway Racing teammate Matt Kenseth, making it the largest points separation so far between 1-2 in this year's Chase.
But Edwards has another big hurdle facing him this weekend -- Martinsville Speedway. Martinsville is the only short-track race on the Chase schedule. It's also one of Edwards' toughest tracks.
Edwards has scored just four top-10 finishes in 14 starts at Martinsville. His best performance here is third place, which came in October 2008. Edwards has led only three laps at this 0.526-mile track -- all of them coming in April when he finished 18th.
"I am a little nervous about Martinsville," he said. "I think if we can pick up just a tiny bit of speed there we will be good. Otherwise, that will be one of the tracks we go to and just fight and claw for a top-10, and that is how it usually is for me there."
Martinsville has not been one Kenseth's better tracks as well. He has just two top-five finishes and seven top-10s in 23 races here. Kenseth did finish sixth at Martinsville earlier this season.
"Probably the most challenging part for me at Martinsville is being calm, thinking through things and not doing something because you are mad," he said. "I don't like getting run into, and I don't like running into other people, and it's bound to happen there since it's such a small track. There is no room to move, and there is not an outside groove where you have another choice to pass."
After finishing 34th at Charlotte and then 26th at Talladega, Jimmie Johnson's hopes of winning a sixth straight series championship are slipping away big time. Johnson is now a distant 50 points behind Edwards. He's not on the brink of elimination just yet, but a disastrous finish at Martinsville could put him out of the game.
"We've just got to keep fighting and keep working on getting every point we can at every race," Johnson said. "We have no clue what's going to happen to all the Chase drivers, and I want to finish as high as I possibly can in the Chase. That does mean the championship. If it's not there, I want to finish as high as I possibly can."
Johnson has notched six wins and 17 top-10 finishes in 19 races at Martinsville. After finishing 35th in his first start here in April 2002, Johnson had a string of 17 straight top-10 runs at this track before placing 11th in this year's spring event.
"Quirky tracks have always worked for me, and this track certainly is that," he said.
If Johnson does not win on Sunday at Martinsville, it will be the first year since 2005 that he has not won a short-track race during a season.
Heading into Martinsville, Brad Keselowski is 18 points behind Edwards, while Tony Stewart trails Keselowski by a single point.
Keselowski continues to be very impressive in his first Chase year. He was the highest finishing championship contender at Talladega with a fourth-place run.
Stewart kept his title hopes very much alive with a seventh-place finish at Talladega.
"I don't think there's anybody that's mathematically out of it with four races to go here right now," Stewart said. "With the old [points] format of the season-long-standings with four races to go, you only had a handful of guys that still mathematically had a shot to win the championship. And you were really racing two to three guys at the most at this point, where there's nobody that's really eliminated from the opportunities to win this championship with four races to go. All 12 guys are still in it."
Kevin Harvick took a big hit in the Chase after finishing 32nd at Talladega. Harvick trailed Edwards by just five points before Talladega. He is now 26 points out of the lead.
Harvick won a Sprint Cup race at Martinsville for the first time in April. He denied Dale Earnhardt Jr. an opportunity to snap his lengthy winless streak when he passed Earnhardt Jr. for the lead with four laps to go. Harvick finished third in last year's fall race here.
"Over the first several years, we didn't get a lot of the finishes [at Martinsville] that we probably deserved, whether it was from a mistake on the racetrack or just dumb luck," Harvick said. "The last couple of years, we've gotten good finishes, and our cars have run fast. To finally get that check mark in the win box was important for us."
Earnhardt Jr.'s winless drought in NASCAR's premier series now stands at 125 races.
Forty-seven teams are on the preliminary entry list for the Tums Fast Relief 500.
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<< This Week in Auto Racing October 29 - 30
Martinsville, VA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Round seven in the Chase for the Sprint
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Rule No. 1 in the gamblers' handbook states, "Avoid sports betting on meaningless games."
When you're drowning in a sea of baseball monotony, however, things change. Even a hint of pro football betting can persuade the most disciplined bettor to break a few rules.
The NFL preseason is around the corner, with a tempting Hall of Fame match kicking off on Sunday. But bettors must stay vigilant. Wagering on NFL exhibition games is an entirely different beast than the regular season. Most fans don't recognize the players on the field because starters get as much action in August as Warcraft fans get on Prom night.
The only certainty about the NFL this time of year is uncertainty – and yet there are some who say betting in August can be a gold mine.
“I actually feel the NFL preseason presents solid profit opportunities for sharp bettors and handicappers,” Sports Expert Steve Merril explains. “My experience has been that the sportsbooks fear the preseason, which is evident by lower limits and massive moves.”
The line moves are attributed to the limited knowledge available regarding playing-time distribution. One team’s top unit out on the field for one more series has an impact on the pointspread. Setting lines in the preseason often is a shot in the dark.
“We base the betting lines mostly on public perception,” Pete Korner, founder of the Sports Club in Las Vegas, says. “It’s very tough to predict, almost a guessing game.”
The preseason is all about figuring out who’s in and for how long.
“It becomes a race between bettors and oddsmakers to find out how long the quarterbacks are going to stay in,” Korner admits. “If a sharp gets the information first, he could exploit an early line. I’m a full believer in moving the line in the preseason if the books find out something late in the week.”
Determining what each team’s motive is can help bettors handicap. To do this you must pay close attention to the philosophies head coaches employ in exhibition play.
“You need to know what a coach is trying to accomplish,” says Covers Expert Bryan Leonard. “Sometimes a new coach will want to instill a winning attitude. Others just want to make sure their starters don’t get hurt."
So how do you distinguish who’s playing scared and who’s playing for keeps?
“Head coaches on the hot seat or new coaches trying to implement a winning attitude usually try harder to win in the preseason,” Merril says.
Cleveland Browns head coach Romeo Crennel fits this criteria. He’s entering his third season as the sideline boss and has yet to lead the Browns to more than six wins.
Cleveland is an enticing bet as well because of the unresolved quarterback situation. General manager Phil Savage sacrificed the Browns’ first-round pick in next year’s draft for Brady Quinn, but the former Notre Dame quarterback hasn’t signed or reported to training camp yet.
Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson split time at QB last season and it looks like either player (or even Quinn) could be the opening-day starter.
“If a team has quarterback depth and the pecking order hasn’t been decided, it’s a big advantage,” Leonard says.
Even in the third week of the preseason when starters generally play the most, the final outcome of the game is in the hands of fringe players. A team's talent, all the way down to the last man on the roster, is something to consider.
The New England Patriots have long been considered one of the deeper teams in the NFL and coach Bill Belichick has said in the past he’s unafraid of stars getting hurt in games with nothing on the line. He shocked his colleagues in 2003 by playing some of his starters on special teams in the preseason.
“We want to have the team ready to play a tough, physical game and preparation has to go into that and I imagine a certain amount of injuries go with it,” Belichick told the Providence Journal in August 2003.
Bettors can only hope to find more teams that share the Pats' business-like approach to the preseason (New England is 17-9-3 against the spread since 2000) and take advantage of teams who detest the exhibition schedule.
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